NFL Football Betting – Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* CHI has won six of its last eight games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven road games
* CHI has lost five of its last seven road games SU
* CHI has played eight of its last 11 road games UNDER the total
* ATL has won six of its last eight games SU
* ATL has played four of its last six games OVER the total
* ATL has covered eight of its last 11 home games
* ATL has won its last five home games SU
* ATL has played ten of its last 14 home games OVER the total

Also…

* CHI has covered six of the last seven meetings
* CHI has won eight of the last ten meetings SU
* The last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
* The last five meetings in Atlanta have gone UNDER the total

If you recall, Matt Ryan, then a rookie, burned the Bears in the final seconds in last year’s meeting, leading the Falcons to a field goal that turned back Chicago by a 22-20 score in the NFL football betting. Ryan has gathered more experience since then, and is completing passes at a 67% rate and seven TD’s. He has thrown only two interceptions. As far as his weapons are concerned, they are solid.

Roddy White had one of the best games of his career last Sunday against San Francisco, shredding the Niner secondary for eight catches and 210 yards, scoring twice. Tony Gonzalez has 19 catches in four games, Michael Jenkins has 187 yards, and Ryan has been sacked only twice. Frankly, the rushing game has not performed as well as hoped, with Michael Turner averaging only 3.7 yards a carry. Then again, after Turner’s All-Pro season last year almost anything would be a letdown.

For the Bears, Jay Cutler has rebounded from a tough opening game to start developing a connection with his corps of receivers. One of those guys is someone he already knew, and Earl Bennett currently leads the team in receptions with 15 and yards with 200. Johnny Knox has been a pleasant rookie surprise, and brought a kickoff back for a touchdown last time out. With speedster Devin Hester and tight end Gregg Olson rounding out the group, Cutler has made this team very competitive, and has had three straight weeks of QB ratings above 100.

Sure, Atlanta was able to wreak havoc against San Francisco last week, as the Niners have a rather simple offense that was missing Frank Gore, and the Falcons had a bye week to prepare. This Bears team now poses a different kind of problem, and if they can get Matt Forte (363 total yards) more involved this team is every bit as well-rounded as Atlanta.

The “elephant in the room” is Atlanta’s inability to put a clamp on most running games, as they allow 4.9 yards a carry (Glen Coffee, a rookie, was not able to exploit that last week). We like Chicago’s ability to control the ball and keep this close, and as such we’re taking the 3.5 points with the Bears in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: CHICAGO +3.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)